Whatever the outcome of the May Election there are only two leaders that can become Prime Minister.  Despite falling support for both Conservative and Labout they are still the biggest parties by some margin.  Almost every poll suggests that neither will get an overall majority though.

The SNP will more than likely be the next biggest party but Alex Salmond won’t form a coalition with the Conservatives and Miliband probably won’t do a deal with the SNP.  Despite UKIP’s strong poll showing, that’s unlikely to translate into many seats because of the way support is distributed with very few constituency strongholds for the nationalist party.  That may well leave the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power once again.  The precedent that they set in 2010 is that they will enter into discussions with the party that get’s the most popular support.  It will be almost impossible for them not to adopt the same policy this time around.

Most polls are putting Labour and Conservative neck and neck, In fact the May 2015 Poll of Polls today separates them by just 0.1%.   So a swing of 1% either way could decide whether or not Cameron hands the keys to Number 10 to Ed Miliband in May.