Having analysed the public declarations of Conservative MPs this morning we’re predicting that Theresa May will win the vote of no confidence and probably by a big margin.
Of the 115 we’ve found who have gone public, 109 are supporting their party leader and just six have indicated they will vote against her. This is fewer than half the total number of Tory MPs but it is a big sample. Amongst the 109 there may me some who voice support but will secretly cast a vote of no confidence. There’s also an argument that says you are more likely to go public with a declaration of support than disloyalty. Both these factors would have to loom large to have an impact on the result.
It may not be a landslide but it will be a sizeable victory and no further leadership challenge will be permitted for 12 months. It will put May in a far stronger position than she was at the start of the week.
This is the bizarre moment when Prime Minister Theresa May was accused of a “premature parliamentary ejaculation” and immediately decried that she was incapable of such a thing. The accusation and denial ‘came’ during questions following the withdrawal on the meaningful vote on May’s Brexit proposal.
We hear constantly from politicians that a people’s vote would be undemocratic. Dwell on that for a moment.
Let’s say we swallow the argument that the people have already spoken and little has changed since British public advised politicians that they wanted to leave the EU. May’s mantra ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is a broadly held view. So on the one hand politicians tell us that they must deliver Brexit and yet plan to vote against it. The May deal is the front runner in not gaining the support of the majority of MPs, but a hard Brexit would also be voted down. A Norway deal would be voted down. Canada plus plus plus would be voted down. So despite politicians telling us they must and will deliver Brexit, it seems there is no deal that they will support. So that leaves ‘no deal’.
However it’s likely that MP’s will decree that ‘no deal’ will be vetoed. So there isn’t any deal we can agree on, we won’t be allowed to leave without a deal and we won’t be given the choice to remain because asking the people would be undemocratic.
So as it stands, there’s no deal, there’s no ‘no deal’ and there’s no option to even consider whether we wish to remain.
The day after PM Theresa May forced her draft Brexit deal through the cabinet her proposal and possibly her premiership has unravelled. A series of resignations from government and letters to Graham Brady the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee will trigger a no-confidence motion that will take place in days possibly as soon as tomorrow.
The only way for May to avoid the vote, which she might well win, would be to resign. All Conservative MPs can vote and if May wins, she remains as PM and cannot be challenged by her party for 12 months. Lose and she must resign and is not eligible to stand in the leadership election that will follow.
May’s replacement will become prime minister without a general election. The election is by secret ballot and the candidate with the fewest votes is removed. Dependent on the number there are several votes (on Tuesdays and Thursdays) until only there are just two candidates who face each other in a postal ballot of the whole Conservative Party membership. The whole process could take several weeks.
Given that the Tories have no majority the combined opposition parties could pass a vote of No Confidence in the government and trigger a general election.
Few doubt that Boris Johnson’s resignation yesterday was less to do with Brexit and more to do with his continuing aspirations to be Prime Minister. Therein lies his problem.
Johnson has form for putting ambition ahead of service, a lot of form. Johnson biographer Andrew Gimson describes him as “staggeringly inconsiderate of others” when focusing upon his own interests. His popularity with a significant sector of the public, may well have tipped the balance in the Brexit referendum. Though despite his vigorous campaigning it’s not entirely clear he believed what he was saying. In February 2016, it was reported that Boris had written two Daily Telegraph columns – one in favour of Brexit, the other for Remain – before deciding which would fill his weekly slot. His decision to back Leave may well have been based on the belief that he would be narrowly on the losing side. He could then have fallen in line as a gallant loser, perfectly placed to succeed Cameron.
For months he has ignored the notion of collective cabinet responsibility to push himself onto the front pages. He seems to be sanguine about the Brexit shambles so long as it helps brand Boris. Yesterday, having agreed to May’s Brexit proposal on Friday, he did a 180 degree turn and resigned. He even produced a publicity shot, signing his resignation letter. History shows that those who show their hand so clearly and so often, rarely reach the highest office.
The resignation couldn’t have been more stage-managed and a leadership bid yesterday seemed inevitable. A few weeks ago when business leaders questioned the government’s indecision over Brexit, Boris allegedly said: “fuck business”. It seems now that more and more people are saying : “fuck Boris”.
Paul Manafort, who is investigating Russian interference in the United States presidential election yesterday accused Trump’s former campaign chairman, of secretly paying former European officials to lobby for the pro-Russian Ukraine government.
In 2012 and 2013 Paul Manafort and his colleague Rick Gates used offshore accounts to pay more than two million Euros to the group of former politicians the indictment says. The plan was to “assemble a small group of high-level European highly influential champions and politically credible friends who can act informally and without any visible relationship with the Government of Ukraine.”
In March 2014 in a TV debate with then Deputy PM Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage said that the European Union had “blood on its hands” over the armed coup that ousted pro-Russia Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich the previous month. Just a few days later, he named Putin as the leader he most admired and said EU leaders were “weak and vain”, adding “If you poke the Russian bear with a stick he will respond.”
During that time Nigel Farage also made multiple appearances on Russia Today, the state sponsored news channel.
Last summer it was reported that Farage was as a “person of interest” in the FBI investigation into alleged links between Russia and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
In 2012-13 two million Euros is secretly paid to former European politicians to speak in favour of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. A few months later Nigel Farage does exactly that. At the very least that merits an investigation into the former UKIP leader’s tax affairs.
Theresa May’s approval rating has fallen to -34 following the general election according to YouGov. In April, the PM had a net favourability rating of +10. The net score is a comparison between approvers 29% and disapprovers at 63%.
Jeremy Corbyn’s net score is 0 – meaning equal numbers of people approve and disapprove of him.
Incredibly the Prime Minister has become more unpopular even than Donald Trump. With 36% favourability versus a disapproval score of 59% according to Gallup who measure the president’s rating on a daily basis his net score is -23. The fact that May is scoring nine points lower is staggering given that Trump has the lowest average approval rating of any US president since records began.
In series of tweets this evening, former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg ruled out going to the House of Lords with the words “Ermine just isn’t my thing”. He lost the Sheffield Hallam constituency in last Thursday’s election. Nick Clegg was MP for Sheffield Hallam from 2005 to 2017 and was the Leader of the Liberal Democrats from 2007 to 2015.
He didn’t rule out a return to The House of Commons but he did hint that he would he would make his voice heard as a journalist with a link to his article yesterday in the FT.
Of course I wish I was still MP for Sheffield Hallam – a wonderful place full of wonderful people – but that was not to be. 1/3
The working relationship between the occupants of Number 10 and Number 11 Downing Street is critical. Philip Hammond said on the Today programme on 17 May that he had “occasionally sworn” at TM’sChief of Staff Nick Timothy. The were persuasive rumours of rows and it was an open secret that May planned to sack Hammond after the election, now she can’t and her Chief of Staff has gone. The relationship between May and Hammond is broken.
The DUP deal can’t hold
This as it turns out is the coalition of chaos. It is impossible to maintain the peace process in Northern Ireland if the government is in league with one of the parties. That alone is enough to break any deal. The DUP staunchly opposes same-sex marriage. There are 10 DUP MPs and 19 LGBTQ Tory MPs including the leader of the powerful Scottish Conservative group. As they say “you do the Math”.
She can’t manage the cabinet
She dropped plans for a major reshuffle of Cabinet because she can’t afford to alienate senior ministers. Without the power of patronage she’s not in charge.
The PM has no allies in Europe
Video that emerged from the EU summit last December showed the PM to be a lonely and isolated figure. That was before her humiliation at the polls. As we enter negotiations to leave the EU she has no influence and not a single ally.
What does Brexit mean now?
If Mrs May thought a Brexit deal was difficult before, now it may be impossible. She can’t satisfy the right of her party because she has to guarantee an open border in Ireland. That means doing a deal on the customs union and maybe even the single market. A hard Brexit would mean a Irish border deal that would eliminate backing from the DUP and potentially bring back conflict in Northern Ireland. She can’t deliver a hard Brexit and she can’t deliver a soft one either.
Minority governments don’t last
Even with a deal in place minority governments are very unstable. The Wilson government called an election just seven months after forming a minority government in February 1974. The 1977 Callaghan minority government lasted a little longer with the support of the Liberals, but that was gone in 16 months.
Her Chiefs of Staff are out
The PM’s joint Chiefs of staff Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill resigned today. Unlike PMs who have alliances with senior elected cabinet colleagues May relied very heavily on her special advisers. They were the architects of her strategy and her advisers when things started to unravel. It led to a breakdown in her relationship with ministers and MPs. A senior Tory MP told Robert Peston: “We all f***ing hate her. …She has totally f***ed us”. At a time when she needs friends and supporters, there are none.
The Tories won’t let her fight another election
It was “my manifesto” and “me and my team”. The campaign was all about the person and not the party and the results aren’t pretty for the Conservatives. If she can’t defend a 20 point lead she won’t get another chance to fight. The party will want a new leader in place in plenty of time before the next election. Some pundits are saying there could be another election this year that doesn’t leave much time.
Theresa May is heading for the departure lounge. We know it and she knows it.
The former leader of the LibDems Nick Clegg lost his seat last night.
The ex-deputy Prime Minister was ousted from his Sheffield Hallam constituency by Labour. Jared O’Mara took the seat with 21,881 votes vs Clegg’s 19,756.
‘”I have always sought to stand by the liberal values I believe in but I have encountered this evening what many people have encountered before tonight and I suspect many people will encounter after tonight which is, in politics, you live by the sword and you die by the sword.” He said after his defeat.
“We saw that in the Brexit referendum last year and we see it here again tonight, polarised between left and right, between different regions and nations and areas of the country, but most gravely of all, this huge gulf now between young and old.
“My only plea would be to all MPs, including Jared, from all parties, is this, that we will not pick our way through the very difficult times that our country faces if in the next parliament MPs of all parties simply seek to amplify what divides them.”
Posts about elections and politics in general with a particular interest in how social media impacts on the political process.