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PM Will Win Tonight

Having analysed the public declarations of Conservative MPs this morning we’re predicting that Theresa May will win the vote of no confidence and probably by a big margin.

Of the 115 we’ve found who have gone public, 109 are supporting their party leader and just six have indicated they will vote against her. This is fewer than half the total number of Tory MPs but it is a big sample. Amongst the 109 there may me some who voice support but will secretly cast a vote of no confidence. There’s also an argument that says you are more likely to go public with a declaration of support than disloyalty. Both these factors would have to loom large to have an impact on the result.

It may not be a landslide but it will be a sizeable victory and no further leadership challenge will be permitted for 12 months. It will put May in a far stronger position than she was at the start of the week.

You can see a full list of Tory MPs here with an indication of how they will vote tonight.

It’s Illogical Captain

We hear constantly from politicians that a people’s vote would be undemocratic. Dwell on that for a moment.

Let’s say we swallow the argument that the people have already spoken and little has changed since British public advised politicians that they wanted to leave the EU. May’s mantra ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is a broadly held view. So on the one hand politicians tell us that they must deliver Brexit and yet plan to vote against it. The May deal is the front runner in not gaining the support of the majority of MPs, but a hard Brexit would also be voted down. A Norway deal would be voted down. Canada plus plus plus would be voted down. So despite politicians telling us they must and will deliver Brexit, it seems there is no deal that they will support. So that leaves ‘no deal’.

However it’s likely that MP’s will decree that ‘no deal’ will be vetoed. So there isn’t any deal we can agree on, we won’t be allowed to leave without a deal and we won’t be given the choice to remain because asking the people would be undemocratic.

So as it stands, there’s no deal, there’s no ‘no deal’ and there’s no option to even consider whether we wish to remain.

The End of May?

The day after PM Theresa May forced her draft Brexit deal through the cabinet her proposal and possibly her premiership has unravelled.  A series of resignations from government and letters to Graham Brady the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee will trigger a no-confidence motion that will take place in days possibly as soon as tomorrow.

The only way for May to avoid the vote, which she might well win, would be to resign.  All Conservative MPs can vote and if May wins, she remains as PM and cannot be challenged by her party for 12 months. Lose and she must resign and is not eligible to stand in the leadership election that will follow.

May’s replacement will become prime minister without a general election. The election is by secret ballot and the candidate with the fewest votes is removed. Dependent on the number there are several votes (on Tuesdays and Thursdays) until only there are just two candidates who face each other in a postal ballot of the whole Conservative Party membership.  The whole process could take several weeks.

Given that the Tories have no majority the combined opposition parties could pass a vote of No Confidence in the government and trigger a general election.

The End for Boris Johnson?

Few doubt that Boris Johnson’s resignation yesterday was less to do with Brexit and more to do with his continuing aspirations to be Prime Minister. Therein lies his problem.

Johnson has form for putting ambition ahead of service, a lot of form.  Johnson biographer Andrew Gimson describes him as “staggeringly inconsiderate of others” when focusing upon his own interests.  His popularity with a significant sector of the public, may well have tipped the balance in the Brexit referendum. Though despite his vigorous campaigning it’s not entirely clear he believed what he was saying.  In February 2016, it was reported that Boris had written two Daily Telegraph columns – one in favour of Brexit, the other for Remain – before deciding which would fill his weekly slot.  His decision to back Leave may well have been based on the belief that he would be narrowly on the losing side. He could then have fallen in line as a gallant loser, perfectly placed to succeed Cameron.

For months he has ignored the notion of collective cabinet responsibility to push himself onto the front pages. He seems to be sanguine about the Brexit shambles so long as it helps brand Boris. Yesterday, having agreed to May’s Brexit proposal on Friday, he did a 180 degree turn and resigned. He even produced a publicity shot, signing his resignation letter.  History shows that those who show their hand so clearly and so often, rarely reach the highest office.

The resignation couldn’t have been more stage-managed and a leadership bid yesterday seemed inevitable.  A few weeks ago when business leaders questioned the government’s indecision over Brexit, Boris allegedly said: “fuck business”. It seems now that more and more people are saying : “fuck Boris”.

 

 

Trump Russia Investigation Points to Europe

Paul Manafort, who is investigating Russian interference in the United States presidential election yesterday accused Trump’s former campaign chairman, of secretly paying former European officials to lobby for the pro-Russian Ukraine government.

In 2012 and 2013 Paul Manafort and his colleague Rick Gates used offshore accounts to pay more than two million Euros to the group of former politicians the indictment says.  The plan was to “assemble a small group of high-level European highly influential champions and politically credible friends who can act informally and without any visible relationship with the Government of Ukraine.”

In March 2014 in a TV debate with then Deputy PM Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage said that the European Union had “blood on its hands” over the armed coup that ousted pro-Russia Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich the previous month.  Just a few days later, he named Putin as the leader he most admired and said EU leaders were “weak and vain”, adding “If you poke the Russian bear with a stick he will respond.”

During that time Nigel Farage also made multiple appearances on Russia Today, the state sponsored news channel.

Last summer it was reported that Farage was as a “person of interest” in the FBI investigation into alleged links between Russia and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

In 2012-13 two million Euros is secretly paid to former European politicians to speak in favour of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. A few months later Nigel Farage does exactly that. At the very least that merits an investigation into the former UKIP leader’s tax affairs.

[Picture by Michael Vadon]

PM More Unpopular than Trump

Theresa May’s approval rating has fallen to -34 following the general election according to YouGov.  In April, the PM had a net favourability rating of +10.  The net score is a comparison between approvers 29% and disapprovers at 63%.

Jeremy Corbyn’s net score is 0 – meaning equal numbers of people approve and disapprove of him.

 

Chart from YouGov

Incredibly the Prime Minister has become more unpopular even than Donald Trump.  With 36% favourability versus a disapproval score of 59% according to Gallup who measure the president’s rating on a daily basis his net score is -23. The fact that May is scoring nine points lower is staggering given that Trump has the lowest average approval rating of any US president since records began.