Longest Ever Campaign Has No Effect

This general election campaign has been unlike any before it.  The date was known almost four and a half years in advance.  Before the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, passed in 2011, election campaigns lasted just a month.

The 2015 campaign kicked off in earnest when the Conservatives unvelied their first campaign poster on January 2nd, arguments about the TV debates started a couple of days later, so we are talking  four months of solid electioneering.  The longest election campaign in British history has made almost no difference at all to voter intentions.

Compare The YouGov poll  at 100 days to go:

CON – 34%
LAB – 33%
UKIP – 14%
LDEM – 7%
GRN – 7%

with the TNS-BRMB poll, today the last day before the vote:

CON – 33%
LAB – 32%
UKIP – 14%
LDEM – 8%
GRN – 6%

Note a single party has changed their share by more than one per cent. Given that the polls have a 2-3% margin of error that’s no change at all.