It sounds preposterous doesn’t it? Bear with me though.
Most of the polls put Labour and the Tories neck and neck with around 33% of the vote each and a forecast 280 seats. That would leave either party short of a working majority by 46 seats. Most polls put the SNP as the next biggest party with 40-50 seats. At the low end that is not enough for a two party coalition. Even if Salmond had enough seats to broker a majority, the animosity held by SNP voters for Labour in Scotland and for the Conservaties full stop would make a coalition deal nigh impossible.
Despite attracting around 15% of the popular vote the electoral system will probably deny UKIP more than 10 seats. The LibDems look like they’ll get around 25 so not enough for them to hold the balance of power this time around.
So what are we left with? A second election may produce the same result again. A three party coalition would require three parties that could work together and there are no combinations that fit that bill.
A Con Lab coalition starts to look a little more plausible doesn’t it? The fixed term parliament act provides for a five year term. The leader of the party with the higher share becomes PM. The leader of the other party steps down and his successor becomes Deputy PM in a government of national unity. These things happen in times of great strife. With chaos in Ukraine and the Middle East, the European Union rocked by the election of Syriza in Greece and the existence of the Union under enormous stress with the rise of Scottish nationalism this may be such a time.
This is the most complex general election in living memory. There is no predictable result, so an unthinkable outcome could be exactly what we get.
6 thoughts on “Could There Be a Con Lab Coalition?”
I’ve been contemplating that possible outcome as well. Sounds horrific on the face of it, but would it provide the shot in the arm our democracy needs, or kill it stone dead?!
Do you not believe a minority Labour or Conservative government is possibly more likely? As you say, a three party coalition is incredibly, incredibly unlikely. A two party coalition will not work. Which leaves a Lab-Con Coalition. Now this has happened before of course, but I can’t really see Cameron and Miliband working together (but willing to be proved wrong). As a result, do you not think it is more likely to have a minority government that has a rather easy ability of negotiating the support for the extra seats? As a thought…
It’s definitely a possibility but they often lead to another election as in 1974 or are weak and ineffective. A minority Labour government with a confidence and supply agreement from the SNP is certainly possible.
labour will never ally with the snp they showed nothing but outright hate towards the snp worst of it was the referendum when Cameron and millaband stood together so they would do it again when the hung paraliment comes and the snp hold the balance of power
Oh I agree. I wouldn’t say it was a strong government by any means. But personally I see it as a more likely scenario personally than any of the coalition possibilities. But I would actually like to be surprised on that one!
I don’t see this as a likely outcome, in fact I don’t see a coalition as a likely outcome – the lib dems are dead, no one would contemplate electoral suicide like that again. Supply and demand deals with the SNP, Plaid, even the greens for a minority (most likely Labour) government is what I’d put my money on. Even if the tories end up largest party, olny the remaining libs or UKIP would work with them and that STILL wouldn’t be enough – they need keeping out of power for good