PM Will Win Tonight

Having analysed the public declarations of Conservative MPs this morning we’re predicting that Theresa May will win the vote of no confidence and probably by a big margin.

Of the 115 we’ve found who have gone public, 109 are supporting their party leader and just six have indicated they will vote against her. This is fewer than half the total number of Tory MPs but it is a big sample. Amongst the 109 there may me some who voice support but will secretly cast a vote of no confidence. There’s also an argument that says you are more likely to go public with a declaration of support than disloyalty. Both these factors would have to loom large to have an impact on the result.

It may not be a landslide but it will be a sizeable victory and no further leadership challenge will be permitted for 12 months. It will put May in a far stronger position than she was at the start of the week.

You can see a full list of Tory MPs here with an indication of how they will vote tonight.

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