We believe if the general election took place just three weeks later on 30 June instead of 9 June, Labour would win.
We’ve taken all of the polling data since the election was called. When you add the trend data for the two major parties you can clearly see Labour has built it’s support quickly while support for Theresa May’s Tories is sliding. Using only the data, shown with the straight linear trend lines on the chart above, Labour would overtake the Conservatives on the 30 June.
Using all of the polls irons out the fluctuations and the trend is clear. It looks like the Conservatives will hold onto their lead and still win next Thursday. The trend data predicts 44% for the Tories and 39% for Labour on election day. If that’s right it would be a major blow for Theresa May and a significantly worse result for the Conservatives than 2015 with a possibility of a hung parliament.
Craig Mackinlay, the Conservative MP for South Thanet, is facing charges for illegal election spending during the 2015 general election. We speculated at the start of the campaign that the election had been timed to avoid a number of such cases coming to light.
The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) says there’s enough evidence to charge Mackinlay, Nathan Gray, his agent, and party organiser Marion Little. Mackinlay is still allowed to fight next week’s election.
PM Theresa May said: “The Conservative party continues to believe that these allegations are unfounded. Craig Mackinlay is innocent until proven guilty and he remains our candidate.”
In 2015, Mackinlay beat the then UKIP leader Nigel Farage by just 2800 votes.
Mackinlay faces two counts of having knowingly contravened the 1983 Representation of People Act over election expenses. He could be tried at a crown court. If found guilty the former MP could face a prison sentence.
The South Thanet constituency has a colourful past. Not only has former candidate Nigel Farage been named as a persion of interest in the Trump/Russia investigation a former MP for the constituency Jonathan Aitken was convicted of perjury in 1999 and received an 18-month prison sentence.