Government can no longer command a majority in the House of Commons.
Two votes in 24 hours have demonstrated that the government has lost control of the House of Commons in the critical run up to a meaningful vote on the only deal on the table for leaving the European Union. Yesterday the Commons voted by 303 to 296 to limit the government’s tax administration powers in the event of no deal. Today they voted to require the PM to come back with a new deal within three days if the current deal is voted down.
In years gone by this would have meant the collapse of the government and a general election. Since the introduction of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act however the lame duck government can limp on, incapable of passing important legislation, until a formal motion of no confidence is passed.
The Labour Party has indicated that they plan to table such a vote if, as is likely, the Government loses the meaningful vote on May’s Brexit deal.
What can we probably expect?
- May will almost certainly lose the vote. She could even put her own neck on the block threatening to resign is she loses.
- May or her deputy, in the event she goes, will have no chance at all of getting the EU agree to a different deal within three days
- With 70 days before Britain is set to leave the EU there will be no deal and no prospect of one.
- Parliament may spend some of that time discussing alternatives before concluding that there is no majority for any plan.
- There are then just three alternatives:
- We leave without a deal on March 29.
- There’s a general election – this may be enough to persuade the 27 EU countries to delay Article 50 but no guarantee that they we will – so no deal exit on March 29
- There’s a 2nd referendum. This may be enough to get Article 50 extended but no guaranteed that parliament will allow it.
What can we definitely expect?
We predict a Tory victory tonight but it will not be a good night for the Tory PM. She won’t get a resounding mandate and she will be seen by history to have wasted precious time for Brexit talks with a pointless election.
Survation was the polling firm that called it right in 2015 when most pollsters were way off. Here’s their final prediction:
We believe if the general election took place just three weeks later on 30 June instead of 9 June, Labour would win.
We’ve taken all of the polling data since the election was called. When you add the trend data for the two major parties you can clearly see Labour has built it’s support quickly while support for Theresa May’s Tories is sliding. Using only the data, shown with the straight linear trend lines on the chart above, Labour would overtake the Conservatives on the 30 June.
Using all of the polls irons out the fluctuations and the trend is clear. It looks like the Conservatives will hold onto their lead and still win next Thursday. The trend data predicts 44% for the Tories and 39% for Labour on election day. If that’s right it would be a major blow for Theresa May and a significantly worse result for the Conservatives than 2015 with a possibility of a hung parliament.
To vote in the General Election on 8 June, you need to register by 11:59pm on 22 May. You don’t need to register again if you’ve already registered.
It only takes 5 minutes and you can do it online here. You might not want to vote for any of the parties but if you don’t register you can’t change your mind and you can’t have a say in who governs the country. Keep your options open and register to vote.
Do it now.
Tomorrow, Thursday 11 May 2017 at 4pm is the deadline for candidates wishing to stand in the 2017 General Election to deliver nomination papers to the relevant Returning Officer. It is also the deadline for candidates to withdraw.
Candidates must be 18 years old or over and either:
- British citizen
- A citizen of the Republic of Ireland
- A citizen of a commonwealth country who does not require leave to enter or remain in the UK, or has indefinite leave to remain in the UK.
The following groups are barred from standing:
- Members of the police forces
- Members of the armed forces
- Civil servants, judges and peers who sit and can vote in the House of Lords
- People who are subject to a bankruptcy restrictions order or a debt relief restrictions order in England, Wales or Northern Ireland
- People who have been adjudged bankrupt in Northern Ireland
- People who have had their estate confiscated (sequestrated) in Scotland
All candidates need to appoint an election agent and provide a deposit of £500 with their nomination papers.
It’s fairly clear why Theresa May chose to call a General Election. Twelve months ago Conservative and Labour were tied but in the last twelve months the Tories have opened up a 20 point lead. It’s difficult to see how that can be eroded in just 7 weeks.
There are a few questions that leap out. We have just 23 months to sort the Brexit negotiations and two of them will now be taken up with domestic politics. The government was in power with a working majority until May 2020 so the election isn’t necessary and it is a distraction. An election could have been called months ago when the Tories had a comfortable 16 point lead. That way it would have been done and dusted before Article 50 was triggered . So why now?
Is Gorton a factor? The Gorton by-election set for May 4th is highly unlikely to now take place because Parliament will be in recess. The elected candidate would not be able to take their seat. A recent report in The Observer suggested it was a two horse race between Labour and the LibDems with 82% of the vote between them. With the Greens getting almost 10% last time round and George Galloway standing as an independent there was a very real chance the Conservatives would lose their deposit.
Perhaps even more worrying for the Prime Minister is the fact that 12 police forces passed files to the Crown Prosecution Service in recent months over allegations Conservative MPs broke local spending limits at the last general election. Around 20 MPs are said to be under scrutiny. If any cases were to go to court not only would it be highly embarrassing it could erode the party’s working majority which stands at just 17. Was that a factor?
Update 19.03 18.4.17 – The CPS has told Channel Four News that 30 individuals are under investigation.
“I have just chaired a meeting of the Cabinet, where we agreed that the Government should call a general election, to be held on June 8. I want to explain the reasons for that decision, what will happen next and the choice facing the British people when you come to vote in this election.
“Last summer, after the country voted to leave the European Union, Britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership, and since I became prime minister the Government has delivered precisely that. Despite predictions of immediate financial and economic danger, since the referendum we have seen consumer confidence remain high, record numbers of jobs, and economic growth that has exceeded all expectations. We have also delivered on the mandate that we were handed by the referendum result. Britain is leaving the European Union and there can be no turning back and as we look to the future, the Government has the right plan for negotiating our new relationship with Europe.
“We want a deep and special partnership between a strong and successful European Union and a United Kingdom that is free to chart its own way in the world. That means we will regain control of our own money, our own laws and our own borders and we will be free to strike trade deals with old friends and new partners all around the world. This is the right approach, and it is in the national interest. But the other political parties oppose it. At this moment of enormous national significance there should be unity here in Westminster, but instead there is division. The country is coming together, but Westminster is not. In recent weeks Labour has threatened to vote against the deal we reach with the European Union. The Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill. The Scottish National Party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union and un-elected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents believe that because the Government’s majority is so small, our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. They are wrong. They under-estimate our determination to get the job done and I am not prepared to let them endanger the security of millions of working people across the country. Because what they are doing jeopardises the work we must do to prepare for Brexit at home and it weakens the Government’s negotiating position in Europe.If we do not hold a general election now their political game-playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election.
“Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country, so we need a general election and we need one now, because we have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin. I have only recently and reluctantly come to this conclusion.
“Since I became Prime Minister I have said that there should be no election until 2020, but now I have concluded that the only way to guarantee certainty and stability for the years ahead is to hold this election and seek your support for the decisions I must take.
So tomorrow I will move a motion in the House of Commons calling for a general election to be held on the eighth of June. That motion, as set out by the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, will require a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons.
So I have a simple challenge to the opposition parties, you have criticised the Government’s vision for Brexit, you have challenged our objectives, you have threatened to block the legislation we put before Parliament.
“This is your moment to show you mean it, to show you are not opposing the Government for the sake of it, to show that you do not treat politics as a game. Let us tomorrow vote for an election, let us put forward our plans for Brexit and our alternative programmes for government and then let the people decide and the decision facing the country will be all about leadership. It will be a choice between strong and stable leadership in the national interest, with me as your Prime Minister, or weak and unstable coalition government, led by Jeremy Corbyn, propped up by the Liberal Democrats – who want to reopen the divisions of the referendum – and Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. Every vote for the Conservatives will make it harder for opposition politicians who want to stop me from getting the job done.
“Every vote for the Conservatives will make me stronger when I negotiate for Britain with the prime ministers, presidents and chancellors of the European Union. Every vote for the Conservatives means we can stick to our plan for a stronger Britain and take the right long-term decisions for a more secure future. It was with reluctance that I decided the country needs this election, but it is with strong conviction that I say it is necessary to secure the strong and stable leadership the country needs to see us through Brexit and beyond So, tomorrow, let the House of Commons vote for an election, let everybody put forward their proposals for Brexit and their programmes for Government, and let us remove the risk of uncertainty and instability and continue to give the country the strong and stable leadership it demands.”