A Bad Night For May in June?

We predict a Tory victory tonight but it will not be a good night for the Tory PM.  She won’t get a resounding mandate and she will be seen by history to have wasted precious time for Brexit talks with a pointless election.

Survation was the polling firm that called it right in 2015 when most pollsters were way off.  Here’s their final prediction:

  • Con 41.3%
  • Lab 40.4%
  • LibDem 7.8%
  • UKIP 2.4%
  • SNP 3.6%
  • Plaid Cymru 1.75
  • Green 2.3%

If you put that data into the Electoral Calculus prediction tool it suggests the Tory party will be two seats short of a majority. That would be a disaster for May and she’d be a lame duck PM unlikely to make it to the end of her term. Or even worse she might need to call another election within a year.

We don’t think it will be quite that bad for her but given that retaining the same majority now looks like a good result for the Conservatives there’s no way for May to spin it.  The election was a bad call and it was badly fought. June could yet be the end of May.