The End of May?

The day after PM Theresa May forced her draft Brexit deal through the cabinet her proposal and possibly her premiership has unravelled.  A series of resignations from government and letters to Graham Brady the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee will trigger a no-confidence motion that will take place in days possibly as soon as tomorrow.

The only way for May to avoid the vote, which she might well win, would be to resign.  All Conservative MPs can vote and if May wins, she remains as PM and cannot be challenged by her party for 12 months. Lose and she must resign and is not eligible to stand in the leadership election that will follow.

May’s replacement will become prime minister without a general election. The election is by secret ballot and the candidate with the fewest votes is removed. Dependent on the number there are several votes (on Tuesdays and Thursdays) until only there are just two candidates who face each other in a postal ballot of the whole Conservative Party membership.  The whole process could take several weeks.

Given that the Tories have no majority the combined opposition parties could pass a vote of No Confidence in the government and trigger a general election.

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