Much has been written of the impact of Twitter and Facebook on the Egyptian uprising but it’s clear from a host of protest banners that the people up in arms are from the ‘gaming’ generation.
The on-line communications channels may have been blocked but the message from protesters is still very clear.
The Liberal Democrat vote is tumbling, with no prospect of let up. The party and its leader Nick Clegg are bearing the brunt of the criticism of coalition policies with the Tories taking far less of the flack. A referendum is due in May and there is the very real prospect that the unpopularity of the LibDems will see the opportunity for electoral reform vanish for a generation. I spoke at length with a senior member of the parliamentary party yesterday and there is a real fear that this might happen.
So what can they do? If they were to leave the coalition there would be a snap general election. The LibDem vote could be halved and a majority Tory government would abandon AV. If they carry on with the status quo the rifts in the party will grow and support will continue to fall. The mantra from the parliamentary party is “wait and see, this is a five year parliament”. That is a strategy of hope and hope is no strategy.
There is one route open. The LibDems agreed to be part of a coalition government and to support a programme of legislation. They however made no promise to remain uncritical. Were there never any dissenting voices within the last Labour government? Didn’t Claire Short call Tony Blair pompous and was she not branded irresponsible in return? Brown and Blair both remained in office whilst waging a cold war over the keys to Number 10. The LibDems in contrast seem to be afraid to voice any criticism lest they should be blamed for a collapse of the coalition.
There need to be a robust defence of LibDem principles. There needs to be visible, brave and principled debate in place of what looks to some like gutless complicity. Where there is clear contravention of election pledges the party must learn to say no. Bad legislation that has been improved at the margins is still bad legislation. The party may be in government but it has all but lost its voice.
It’s not surprising that the leaders of a party so long in the wilderness should be politically naive. However the extent to which the LibDems are bearing the brunt of opposition to Conservative policy, particularly on tuition fees, must amaze even the most hardened Tory strategists.
Vince Cable famously said of Gordon Brown that “the House has noticed the Prime Minister’s remarkable transformation in the last few weeks from Stalin to Mr Bean”. Cable himself has made an equally remarkable conversion from Father Christmas to Ebenezer Scrooge. The LibDems today fell to just 8% in the polls. Translated into an electoral vote, that would actually mean fewer seats under proportional representation that they have now.
The mistake that the LibDem leaders made was to join the Tories in a full coalition rather that a confidence and supply agreement. In doing so the Tories would have had to agree to enact more of the LibDems’ manifesto and politically the LibDems would have avoided being tainted as a full coalition partner in an unpopular government determined to cut spending . They would certainly have not been dragged into supporting a policy on university fees that they so clearly opposed.
To regain popular support, they must return to the path of principle and it is likely that those who vote with their conscience today will emerge post-crisis at the helm. The alternative is to continue to take the rap for the cuts and to consign Liberal politics to political history.
There has been much talk about David Milibands digital plans for the leadership contest, and both brothers represent a generation that should be more web savvy. However both need to get a better understanding and a firmer grip on the social space.
Ed Miliband was bounced into announcing his intentions early because constituency party member Mary Wimbury tweeted about his plans on Friday night when activists were ask to endorse his plans. “At Doncaster north labour party. Delighted that Ed Miliband has told party members he is going to stand for party leader.”
Whilst the brothers are avid users of twitter David in particular has been dogged by fake twitter accounts. As recently as last week party members were ‘retweeting’ comments from a fake DMilibandMP. The nature of social media is that it is difficult to regulate and manage, however the potential for campaigns to be thrown off course is real and immediate. Therefore it is essential for the modern politician to monitor the social space and engage the expertise required to deal with both the threats and opportunities from social networks.
We’ve changed the name of the blog as the UK election is now over. There is still plenty to discuss in the realm of politics and the social web, Ed Miliband will think so given that he was bumped into announcing his candidature for the Labour leadership after it was leaked on twitter. So the blog will continue, and it may even revert to its original name if the cracks that are already opening in the Lib Con coalition continue to widen.
The companion twitter account has changed its name too.
The 55% rule on dissolution is the stitch up of the century but it strikes me that it is evident that the people who put this together and are now in government are, how should I put this, a bit stupid? The relevant text in Con Lib deal goes as follows:
The parties agree to the establishment of five-year fixed-term parliaments. A Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government will put a binding motion before the House of Commons in the first days following this agreement stating that the next general election will be held on the first Thursday of May 2015. Following this motion, legislation will be brought forward to make provision for fixed term parliaments of five years. This legislation will also provide for dissolution if 55% or more of the House votes in favour.
In a well argued piece by Louise Balldock it is clear that they the Tories are trying to make it impossible to oust them from Parliament even if the coalition falls apart, they alone could put up more than 45% of the votes, rejecting dissolution.
But this is the stupid bit. They can’t rig votes on bills, so if the coalition does fall apart and there was a majority in favour of dissolution all they would have to do is vote through an amendment to this crass Act restoring the principle, up until now delivered through convention after the passing of a motion of no confidence, of a simple majority for dissolution. Makes you despair.
Wordcloud of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition agreement created by Chris Quinn at www.wordle.net
David Cameron Blakey from ‘On The Buses’
This extraordinary argument played out live on Sky this evening after Gordon Brown announced that he would be stepping down. Murdoch owned Sky News hasn’t exactly established itself as a bastion of independent minded analysis during this election but the sight of the political editor of a major broadcaster being drawn into a heated exchange like this is amazing to behold. You might almost imagine he was angry at the possibility of discussions between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Logic dictates that this blog should shuffle off or transform itself into something that covers the wider issues of politics and social media, but we live in interesting times. I think that the chances are extremely high that 2010 will see a second UK general election.
If the LibDems do a deal with the Conservatives the backlash that they will face for ‘dancing with the devil’ with no promise on voter reform will inevitably destabilise the coalition, that’s if it gets off the ground. A Conservative minority government wouldn’t last long and a Labour/LibDem/SNP/Plaid Cymru/DUP/Green coalition would be inherently weak.
It’s hardly a cast iron solution but another plebiscite is looking increasingly likely.
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