The Opinion Polls are clearly off again given that two polls today give the Tories 40% (Survation) and 50% (ComRes) respectively, a difference of 10%. One thing however that we can be sure of is that the Conservatives have a big lead and that it has largely come at the expense of UKIP. The Independence party has been steadily polling in the mid to low teens up until now and even reached 19% in the run up to the referendum. It now appears to have lost its way with today’s ComRes polling giving Paul Nuttall’s party just 7%. Aware that interest in the party is draining a way the new leader has attempted to grab media attention with a ‘ban the burka’ policy.
The referendum result and Theresa May’s apparent commitment to a hard Brexit has shot the UKIP fox. Farage won’t stand again and even leader Paul Nuttall hasn’t committed to fighting for a seat. Last time round 13% of the vote wasn’t enough to win a single seat. Single digit support definitely won’t put a UKIP MP in the Commons.