A poll in tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday puts the Liberal Democrats in poll position with two and a half weeks to go before May 6th and the real vote. The breakdown of the BPIX – Mail on Sunday is as follows:
Liberal Democrats 32%
The other polls published in the national press tomorrow have the Tories in first place but with a much reduced margin and the LibDems are second in one with Brown’s Labour party hanging on to second place in the Telegraph/ICM prediction.
The Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday/ComRes poll has the Conservatives on 31% (-4), Labour on 27 per cent (-2) and the Liberal Democrats on 29 per cent (+8). The Sunday Telegraph/ICM poll puts the Tories on 34 per cent (-3), Labour on 29 per cent (-2) and the Lib Dems on 27 per cent (+7). YouGov and the Sunday Times have the Conservatives at 33%, Labour 30% and Liberal Democrats 29%.
In the Leaders Debate Cameron uttered the immortal line “a 40-year old black man made the point to me: ‘I came here when I was six, I’ve served in the Royal Navy for 30 years”. The fact that Cameron thought it important to make the point that he had conversation with people irrespective of ethnicity came across as preposterous – as daft as the idea that this guy had joined the navy at the age of 10.
Well it didn’t take long for the web to take the proverbial with the Cameron anecdote generator. The model is the same as the ‘airbrushed for change’ poster generator and it uses the same mug shot. Click the poster to take you to the site and randomise the anecdote.
Today’s YouGov poll reveals a huge surge in support for the Liberal Democrats. Nick Clegg’s performance in the first of three TV debates has put the LibDems in 2nd place ahead of Labour and just three points behind the Tories. The figures published in The Sun this morning show Conservative 33%(-4), Labour 28%(-3), LibDem 30%(+8). The effect on our poll of polls average will be seen if and when further polls reflect this shift.
The LibDem bounce is likely to enjoy the considerable oxygen of publicity which may boost their share further setting up a scenario where they are a contender genuine contender for to win, in time for the 2nd TV debate next Thursday. So is this the TV election or can it still be influenced by social media. Well it is both. The verdict on who had won the election came first from social networks. Social media analytics companies were measuring sentiment in real time and publishing the data whilst the debate was still in flow. Clegg’s performance delivered 10,000 additional fans on Facebook and in the coming days the force of the groundswell in social media support for the third party (or do we now say second?) will make the leap into mainstream commentary.