Nick Clegg Behind In Sheffield Hallam…Last November

February 7, 2015 Editor 2 Comments

At the start of the week Lord Ashcroft published his latest batch of polls, this time from Scotland. Perhaps the biggest shocker was the 29 point deficit to the SNP faced by LibDem Danny Alexander, in his seat in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey.

Today it’s the LibDem leader’s turn. Lord Ashcroft announced today that it had come to light that the poll he had published for Sheffield Hallam included a mistake in the data. The corrected data means that rather than having a three-point lead Nick Clegg should have been three points behind Labour.

The problem is that this poll was done in November, so whether the data was right or wrong, it’s completely out of date. Lord Ashcroft is an erstwhile activist so as I posted earlier in the week there are good reasons for treating his announcements with caution. On the 27 November the day that Ashcroft first announced TNS BMRB put the LibDems on 6% of the national vote, Today a YouGov poll puts them on 9%.

In search of a headline however The Telegraph, The Independent and Channel Four News all carry the line that Nick Clegg is on course to lose his seat. Perhaps he is, it looks as though he was, but a November poll is no basis for a February headline.

TV Debate

TV Debates Will be Deadly Dull – If They Even Happen

February 6, 2015 Editor Leave a comment

If they happen at all the 2015 election TV debates will be reduced to a litany of dull, pre-prepared responses and little actual debate. Broadcasters have put forward proposals for two debates featuring the leaders of seven UK political parties, including the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

As the London Evening Standard reported last night that will mean just four or five questions with seven responses for each one. The leaders replies will be restricted to just sixty seconds. It’s not the kind of format that will allow any leader to shine or provoke any meaningful interaction. With just five or so minutes to speak Nick Clegg won’t have time to repeat the success of his 201 0 performances.

The only possibility of real interaction is a proposed head-to-head between just David Cameron and Ed Miliband as one of the three broadcast, but Cameron is unlikely to agree and may railroad the debates altogether.

Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman, said recently that they “edging towards a solution” but that Cameron was prepered to participate without giving a binding commitment. That sounds a lot like talks about talks. Many senior Conservatives think it would suit Cameron to keep debating the terms of the Debates until the clock runs out.

General

Young Hit Hard as a Million Wiped Off Electoral Register

February 5, 2015 Editor Leave a comment

A new system of individual voter registration has wiped a million people off the electoral register with students particularly affected.

People now have register to vote individually rather than one member of a household or a college residence filling in the form. The number of people registered to vote has fallen sharply in many university towns. The Electoral Commission has said that 30% of 18 to 24-year-olds are currently not registered to vote.

Today (5th February 2015) is National Voter Registration Day (NVRD)created by the non-partisan Bite The Ballot group with the aim of inspiring as many as possible register to vote ahead of the 2015 General Election. Co-founder, Michael Sani, said: ‘NVRD is a day for the nation to come together. It’s a day for all of us, as citizens, to celebrate our democratic rights. But it’s also a chance to prove to decision-makers that we hold a stake in society; that we’re registered, that we’ll vote – and that we want more from our democracy’.

Last night the day was launched with the hashtag #NVRD and a ballot box projected on to the House of Commons in partnership with the UK Parliament.

Anyone can register online now here https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote and find our more about Bite the Ballot here http://bitetheballot.co.uk/nvrd/#sthash.bsM48Z1b.dpuf

People must register before the 20 April deadline or they will not be able to register to vote in the election.

Polling

Five Reasons To Doubt Lord Ashcroft’s Polls

February 4, 2015 Editor 3 Comments

Lord Ashcroft grabbed the headlines once again today when he unveiled his seat-by-seat polls in Scotland and added fuel to the speculation that the SNP will deliver a Labour rout in May. His polls are different because he looks at individual constituencies not the national picture.

The headlines today paint a joyous picture for the SNP and there is no doubt that they will do well. The Ashcroft poll suggests that they will win 50 of the 56 59 Scottish seats. Aggregate polls suggest that the number will be nearer forty. So are there reasons to doubt Ashcroft?

He is a Tory peer and a lifelong supporter of the Conservatives who is estimated to have donated as much as £10m to the party. We might be forgiven thinking that he’s tempted to spin for them.
In his three national polls this year the Conservatives are ahead in two (by 6 points in one) and level in the other. If you look at all the other polls over the same period it’s nine-four in Labour’s favour.
His polls are snap shots at a specific point in time so can’t really be relied upon other than at the time they are published.
He calls into question his own methodology. “Most of my constituency research is focused on marginal seats. But in post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat is rather obsolete”.
The UK General Election 2015 Blog thinks that there is a problem in the weighting of today’s results. Labour is ahead amongst over 65s in Scotland “The over 65s are going to be the most likely to vote it is accepted by everyone. Yet in Lord Ashcroft’s poll he weights the respondents down in his survey for the over 65s from 28% of his actual respondents to 18% of the actual figures used”.

One prediction on which it is difficult to cast doubt is that LibDem Danny Alexander, number two in the Treasury and member of the coalition’s gang of four ‘The Quad’, will lose his seat. According to Ashcroft he is behind in the Inverness seat he has held for a decade by 29 points. If even half-true, it’s an impossible hill to climb.

Parliament

The Secrets of the House of Commons

February 3, 2015 Editor Leave a comment

Tonight at 9.30pm on BBC2 a new television documentary, ‘Inside the Commons’ reveals behind the scenes parts of Parliament never seen by the public.

The Palace of Westminster has 1,000 rooms and three miles of corridors and is often referred to by insiders as Hogwarts. Seasoned veteran Liberal Democrat Charles Kennedy admits to still getting lost in the building. The four part series goes onto the floor of the Commons chamber, allowing viewers to see exactly what MPs see during debates.

It took six years to persuade the authorities before they agreed to the series. David Cameron talks about his dread of Prime Minister’s Questions; “there isn’t a Wednesday that you don’t feel total fear and trepidation about what is about to happen. I think prime ministers have always felt that.”

There was opposition to the documentary from some MPs who have a “general hatred of the media” in the wake of the expenses scandal, and who made it clear they were against the project.

Sir Robert Rogers, the Commons clerk and chief executive (who resigned in 2014) deals with the the need to conserve the building and at the same time bringing its facilities, including communications technology into the 21st Century. “We’re trying to run a modern parliament in a Victorian building.”

The first episode of Inside the Commons is on BBC Two at 9pm on Tuesday 3 February and runs for four weeks.

UKIP

UKIP’s Farage is Back on the Beer

February 1, 2015 Editor Leave a comment

Nigel Farage, who likes a tweet almost as much as he likes a drink, revealed on Twitter today that was enjoying a pint after being off the beer for January.

He didn’t let the grass grow under his feet posting at five minutes past midnight “As of this moment I’m returning as a fully paid up member of the drinking classes! #dryjanuary #DryJanuaryIsOver”.

It remains to be seen whether his campaigning style will alter now that he is back on the sauce. “I am very lucky – I am a drinker, often quite a steady one. I am a boozer, but I am not an alcoholic. And that is the point”.

Conservative, Hung Parliament, Labour

Why 1% of Voters Could Decide the Next PM

January 31, 2015 Editor 1 Comment

Whatever the outcome of the May Election there are only two leaders that can become Prime Minister. Despite falling support for both Conservative and Labout they are still the biggest parties by some margin. Almost every poll suggests that neither will get an overall majority though.

The SNP will more than likely be the next biggest party but Alex Salmond won’t form a coalition with the Conservatives and Miliband probably won’t do a deal with the SNP. Despite UKIP’s strong poll showing, that’s unlikely to translate into many seats because of the way support is distributed with very few constituency strongholds for the nationalist party. That may well leave the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power once again. The precedent that they set in 2010 is that they will enter into discussions with the party that get’s the most popular support. It will be almost impossible for them not to adopt the same policy this time around.

Most polls are putting Labour and Conservative neck and neck, In fact the May 2015 Poll of Polls today separates them by just 0.1%. So a swing of 1% either way could decide whether or not Cameron hands the keys to Number 10 to Ed Miliband in May.

General

How General Elections Work in 81 Seconds.

January 30, 2015 Editor Leave a comment

Earlier this year the UK Parliament posted a quick, handy video guide to the General Election on their official YouTube channel. Suprisingly there’s a Monty Python reference in there. Can you spot it?

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