Category Archives: General

Election 10 is Staying Put – Ready for the Second 2010 Election

Logic dictates that this blog should shuffle off or transform itself into something that covers the wider issues of politics and social media, but we live in interesting times.  I think that the chances are extremely high that 2010 will see a second UK general election.

If the LibDems do a deal with the Conservatives the backlash that they will face for ‘dancing with the devil’ with no promise on voter reform will inevitably destabilise the coalition, that’s if it gets off the ground.  A Conservative minority government wouldn’t last long and a Labour/LibDem/SNP/Plaid Cymru/DUP/Green coalition would be inherently weak.   

It’s hardly a cast iron solution but another plebiscite is looking increasingly likely.

Popular Hashtags in the 2010 UK General Election Campaign #GE2010

 

This general election has been the first in which Hastags have played a part, they are used in social networks and most commonly in twitter, as user-generated meta data.  Put simply they are a way of identifying and therefore following tweets that cover the election or an aspect of it .  Here is a quick guide to some of the most popular ones

#GE2010  –  This is the default tag for posts that relate to the 2010 general election.  There are others but this has emerged as the most popular because it is economical in its use of characters.

#GE10  –  A shorter form, but less used than the above.  Useful if you have run out of characters but likely to be seen by fewer people.

#Vote  –  Has been used both as a short generic hashtag for the election but was also popular in encouraging voters to register before the deadline.

#UKElection  –  More instantly recognisable than #GE2010 but not quite as popular because it eats up more characters.

#LeadersDebate –  One of the most interesting because it was part of a phenomenon that TV programme makers call “two-screen”, using a laptop or smart phone to comment on live television.  It mean that social networks rather than conventional media were the first to pass judgement on the performance of the part leaders during the TV debates.

#iagreewithnick –  Echoing Gordon Brown’s famous utterance during the first TV debate and used primarily to show support for the LibDem leader during the bounce his party received after the first debate.

#NickCleggsFault  – Widely employed to mock the print media’s ‘assassination’ attempts on Clegg.  It was a meme that lasted a few days as Clegg was accused of all manner of spoofed wrongdoings.

#paxo   – Similar to the #LeadersDebate but employed for the Paxman leader interviews.

#LibDemFlashMob  – The hashtag used to organise the Liberal Democrat gatherings in Trafalgar Square and other UK cities on Bank Holiday Monday.

#InVinceCable  – Used by a group of digital marketeers and PR people, and their fellow travellers, to promote Vince Cable as Chancellor in the event of a hung or balanced parliament.  (FD  Election10 endorses the objectives of the #InVinceCable campaign).

#Labourdoorstep – Used by Labour candidates and activists to emphasise the fact that they were taking the campaign directly to the voters.

I’m going to venture another one that might become popular in the next few days. #Hung10 anyone?

Labour and Conservative Decline Traces Back Over Half a Century

This morning I posted about the decline in the overall share of the two “major” parties and how this pointed to a certain hung parliament.

The post attracted a lot of traffic and several comments not least from one Ben Goldacre, journalist, doctor and author of the Bad Science blog.  I used ICM/Guardian data and plotted a graph showing the decline in votes over the last 20 years for the two major parties. He accused me of bullshitting and repeatedly called me a twat because I had omitted data from 1984-1990 that was available from the Guardian.  In fact the reason for starting from 1990 was because 20 years seemed like a good length of time to support the argument and there was a blip in the early eighties caused by the split of the SDP from Labour and their alliance with the Liberals.  I ought to point out that I wasn’t entirely blameless in the exchange in that I suggested he’d had a drink or two. Sorry Ben.

I am now posting using election data from the last 50 years and the latest poll data for 2010.  I think the picture is pretty clear and undistorted and supports the earlier hypothesis.  The combined support for the two main parties has been falling for 50 years.  If that continues and there is no proof that it will then two-party politics is on the way out.  The defining moment might just be on Thursday.

Politics, The Social Web and the End of Secrecy

There are few groups as secretive as the Bilderberg group, the axis of politicians and industrialists that meet in secret every year and have been credited by some as the secret power behind the European Union and US administration.   It is likely that both Peter Mandelson and George Osborne will be amongst the 130 or so attendees just as they were last year but there will be no discussions about Bilderberg during the election debates.  The CEO of Google attended too in 2009.

It is unclear how influential this group actually is, but clandestine cabals run counter to the ideas of democracy.   Their ability however to operate under the radar is being unravelled by the social web. Although it doesn’t appear to be published anywhere (official or otherwise) this blog reveals where the next meeting of the Bildergroup will take place.  It took ten minutes to find out.  Here’s how.

The Dolce Sitges is fully booked for all those dates, although every other hotel in the town has rooms.  The Dolce is also away from the main town, on a cliff to and accessible via a single, easy to secure, road.  Call us conspiracy theorists if you like but if you encounter Osborne or Mandelson on the campaign trail ask them if they’re planning a trip to Spain together this summer.

Today is the Final Day Yon Can Register to Vote

If you are not yet registered to vote in the UK general elections today is the very last chance that you have to do so.  There is a fantastic website provided by the Electoral Commission called About My Vote, which

will show you how to register to vote.  Entering your postcode on the site, and they will provide the forms and show you where to take them . They can usually be faxed or hand delivered.  Do it now.  The deadline is 5pm today.

Sarah Brown Is Going To Keep On Tweeting To Election Day


Back in February we speculated as to whether Sarah Brown’s twitter account might form part of Labour’s social media election strategy.  It is difficult to see how it can play a major part but it will continue help to soften Gordon’s image and it is likely add significantly to its 1.1 million followers in the next four weeks.

There is no doubt that this is Sarah’s account but it does show significant signs of being ‘managed’.   Her follower numbers have been in steady decline this year – possibly bots being removed – but went into increase yesterday on the eve of the election call.

Either way,  if you check the video above Sarah has made it clear she’s going to keep on tweeting.

Will Social Media Be Decisive in the May 6th Election?

Now the campaign proper is in full effect and the media beast needs feeding on an hourly basis, one of the big questions on the lips of journalists is “will Facebook and twitter change the course of the election?”.  The answer is of course “yes and no”.

Social media will have less impact in the UK in 2010 than in the US in 2008 for a number of reasons:

  • Social networks are not as instant as people believe  they take time to build.  In the US fixed term system this meant they could start more than a year in advance.  We have four weeks.
  • We vote for local MPs.  We don’t vote for a president (or even a prime minister).  Social groups coalesce better around iconic individuals.
  • We have national ‘mainstream media’ in a way that the US does not.
  • The US is bigger, with different time zones so ‘opt in’ media that isn’t constrained by time or schedules works better.

In addition there is no party or individual that has achieved a huge level of traction in any of the social networks, with the exception of Sarah Brown who isn’t a politician. In the “yes” camp there are some persuasive arguments:

  • The verdict on the all important TV debates will be on-line and will be democratic.  We saw this in the Ask The Chancellor debates on Channel 4.
  • In a real sense people will participate in the debate and if an issue trends the politicians will have to answer.
  • Social media means that the media is ‘always on’, far more so than 24 hour TV news.  Any banana skins and we’ll know as soon as the politicians do.

From Cash Gordon to Crash Gordon – Hack Brings Down Tory Site

On Saturday the Tory Party launched a web assault on Gordon Brown with a site called Cash Gordon.  The site highlighted Brown’s links to the Unite union and invited users to play to earn ‘action points’ by tweeting about the campaign.   When the lobby for cash story broke Cash Gordon started to gain significant interest.

However things started to go wrong on Monday morning when users realised that the site was posting unmoderated tweets with the #cashgordon hashtag.  You can imagine what started to happen with the tweets.   Things then got much worse for the young turks running the Tory web campaign.  Users discovered a security flaw which allowed the site to be hacked multiple times during the early afternoon of Monday.  Twitter users were circulating the  JavaScript code online and the URL was directed at a multitude of locations including the Labour home page and several somewhat more salacious sites. 

At the time of writing Cash Gordon is no more and the URL is directed at the news pages of the main Conservative site.

Facebook Ramps Up Interest in Election with Democracy UK

Facebook has pitched into the election space with Democracy UK,  a campaign page that will carry information from the political parties in the run-up to the vote.  The sister of Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s director of market development, Randi Zuckerberg (above) is overseeing the launch.  The political parties are also starting to target Facebook with ad campaigns.

Facebook was a pivotal space in the run up to the last US presidential election but so far it hasn’t gained the same traction in the UK – partly because our elections are less focussed on individuals and more on parties.  The US primaries also mean that the process is ‘live’ for several months.  When the UK election is called there will be less than four weeks for the campaign to run.  Whilst many regard social media as instant the truth is that it takes months for the bandwagon to roll on sites like twitter and Facebook.     

Democracy UK is and attempt to garner interest amongst the UK’s 24 million Facebook users but its a tough challenge – the page has less than 100 fans at lunchtime on launch day and it is heavy in information and light on applications.

Twitelection – Twit Was Inevitable Really

Twitelection

We suspect this will be one of many ‘tw-opinion’ polls that use twitter to predict how the nation is feeling about the election, how people plan to vote and ultimately the outcome. 

Twitelection invites users not just to name a party but to use  happy or sad face to express sentiment or emotion in relation to the main parties. It also needs the hashtag #ukvote and of course the name of the party.  There is an option to include postcode information that could be used in conjunction with constituency mapping to predict the outcome in marginal constituencies.

Over time it shows how the twelectorate (Ok that’s enough….ed) are feeling about the parties rather than simply how they will vote. Twitelection Voting Rules

At present there aren’t quite the volume of tweets out there to make this a meaningful assessment of real changes attitude to the party but it is early days and as the campaign and the tweets ramp up it could become part of our daily election stat diet.