Although the media can’t get enough of Nicola Sturgeon she’s not even a candidate in the General Election, in two weeks time. Yes, you heard that right, she’s not standing, but Alex Salmond is and he will be the leader of the Scottish National Party’s Westminster MPs. There will be about 50 or so of them if the polls are to be believed. “I’m the leader of the SNP, I’ll be in charge of any decisions and negotiations and anything that happens after May 7” says Sturgeon. But she won’t be in Westminster, so Salmond, who will, must inevitably play a key role after the vote. Why then have we heard nothing from him for weeks? Have they calculated that Sturgeon won’t provoke the ire of the media in the same way Salmond might? Alex Salmond is one of the brightest and effective politicians that the UK has seen. Whatever the reason for his absence from the stage, you can guarantee it’s no accident.
Pub Landlord Confirms He’ll Stand Against Farage
Pub Landlord, Al Murray has confirmed his intention to stand against the beer loving UKIP leader Nigel Farage in the South Thanet constituency in the May general election. Murray confirmed on Twitter that his nomination papers were submitted this morning (8/4/14).
The comedian will stand under the banner of the newly-formed Free United Kingdom Party (FUKP). In a bid to win votes from beer drinking voters, he has promised to introduce the 1p pint, although “crisps will remain at the current price”. Mr Farage has vowed to quit as UKIP leader if he fails to win South Thanet, which the Conservatives won from Labour at the previous election in 2010. Latest polls show that Nigel Farage is marginally behind in a three-cornered fight with UKIP one point behind the Conservatives and Labour one point behind them. Whilst Murray is unlikely to win, his candidacy could be highly significant, even decisive, in a closely run race.
Sturgeon Surprising in TV Leaders Debate
David Cameron didn’t want to do any of the TV debates, so to have come through them relatively unscathed is probably a result for him.
Nicola Sturgeon probably gained most from the two hour TV marathon last night. Although there was no consistency in the post broadcast polls, one from YouGov actually put Sturgeon on top with 28%. Miliband did better than Cameron with top or equal top position n three of the five polls.
Sturgeon looked to be making overtures to Labour by supporting the party’s plan to restore the 50p top rate of tax, clearly with a mind to support a minority Labour victory. Green Party leader Natalie Bennett looked uncomfortable at times as did Leanne Wood of Plaid Cymru, who targeted most of her points at the Welsh audience.
Clegg attacked Cameron for tax cuts for the rich and went on the offensive several time with his partner in government – clearly seeking to put clear blue water between his party and the Conservatives.
Still to come is a BBC debate involving just the opposition party leaders, so no Clegg or Cameron, on 16 April. There will also be a special Question Time on BBC One, one week before the election, with Cameron, Miliband and Clegg separately answering questions from a studio audience. Drama is unlikely to ensue, but watch this space.
Rifkind Resigns from ISC and Won’t Fight the Election.
Malcolm Rifkind has resigned as chair of parliament’s intelligence and security committee (ISC) and will not seek re-election as an MP at the general election.
His decision follows an undercover investigation by Channel 4 Dispatches and The Telegraph into services for cash. Both Rifkind and Jack Straw MP were suspended from their parties after accusations that they offered services to a fictitious Chinese company.
Jack Straw suspended himself from the Labour party as the evidence came to light but Rifkind held on and was still fighting to keep his ISC chair until this morning when he announced that stepping down was “entirely my personal decision.”
He added “I had intended to seek one further term as MP for Kensington, before retiring from the House of Commons. I have concluded that to end the uncertainty it would be preferable, instead, to step down at the end of this parliament.”
He maintains that the allegations made by undercover reporters are “contemptible.”
Broadcasters Name Dates for Leader Debates
The BBC, ITV, Sky and Channel Four have named the dates for the three UK election TV debates. It’s still not clear that all the leaders will agree to take part or that the debates will go ahead if any decline.
The broadcaster drew lots and the order of the three programmes is scheduled to be :
2nd April: Debate between the Party Leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the SNP, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru on ITV.
16th April: Debate between the Party Leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the SNP, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru on BBC 1
30th April: Head to head debate between the Leader of the Conservative Party and the Leader of the Labour Party on Sky and Channel 4
ITV’s debate will be hosted by Julie Etchingham with David Dimbleby fronting the BBC show.
However commentators believe that David Cameron is unlikely to take part and The Liberal Democrats are angry that the broadcasters have put them on equal footing with Plaid Cymru.
An insider has said “it’s chaos. They are drawling lots before anything is even close to being agreed.”
Could There Be a Con Lab Coalition?
It sounds preposterous doesn’t it? Bear with me though.
Most of the polls put Labour and the Tories neck and neck with around 33% of the vote each and a forecast 280 seats. That would leave either party short of a working majority by 46 seats. Most polls put the SNP as the next biggest party with 40-50 seats. At the low end that is not enough for a two party coalition. Even if Salmond had enough seats to broker a majority, the animosity held by SNP voters for Labour in Scotland and for the Conservaties full stop would make a coalition deal nigh impossible.
Despite attracting around 15% of the popular vote the electoral system will probably deny UKIP more than 10 seats. The LibDems look like they’ll get around 25 so not enough for them to hold the balance of power this time around.
So what are we left with? A second election may produce the same result again. A three party coalition would require three parties that could work together and there are no combinations that fit that bill.
A Con Lab coalition starts to look a little more plausible doesn’t it? The fixed term parliament act provides for a five year term. The leader of the party with the higher share becomes PM. The leader of the other party steps down and his successor becomes Deputy PM in a government of national unity. These things happen in times of great strife. With chaos in Ukraine and the Middle East, the European Union rocked by the election of Syriza in Greece and the existence of the Union under enormous stress with the rise of Scottish nationalism this may be such a time.
This is the most complex general election in living memory. There is no predictable result, so an unthinkable outcome could be exactly what we get.
Channel Four Imagines a UKIP Victory
Channel 4 airs ‘UKIP: The First 100 Days’ at 9pm tomorrow night (Monday 16 February). It imagines what would happen in the event of a UKIP government after May’s election.
The docudrama uses real footage of Farage and UKIP activists to tell an imagined story of a UKIP victory. Farage smokes in the back of a limousine heading to Downing Street to become Britain’s new Prime Minister. Controversial former Tory MP Neil Hamilton is installed as deputy Prime Minister. Within three months, the nation is on the brink of collapse with race riots and the UK preparing to pull out of the EU.
UKIP is furious. One insider said “this is typical of the poppycock peddled by the public-school educated lefties who run Channel 4 and large chunks of the media. The idea that this is what would happen is simply preposterous.”
Can We Trust The Mirror’s Fake Twitter Story?
David Cameron has nearly 150,000 fake followers on Twitter, around 15% of the total, according to an article in the Daily Mirror yesterday. We are told that Nadine Dorries and William Hague have an even great percentage of bogus tweeters following their accounts.
How much actual research did The Mirror do to establish these numbers? Well not much actually, they used just one tool Status People’s Fakers App. They themselves say “our scores are relatively accurate for larger Twitter Accounts”. Hardly conclusive then.
Take a closer look at the Mirror story and it’s clear that they’re not sure either. The article says “15% of them appear to be fake”, “MPs most likely to have “fake” followers”, “21% of their followers apparently being fake”. There are more caveats here than in a Hollywood pre-nup.
That said, Twitter is absolutely full of fake accounts, so here at Ballot Blogs we decided to check how many fake followers The Daily Mirror has. We used three tools TwitterAudit, Social Bakers Fake Followers and the Fakers App used by The Mirror. The results were startling. Twitter Audit said The Mirror had 39.6% fake followers, Social Bakers put it higher at 41%, Fakers App said 16% Fake and 48% inactive. It seems @DailyMirror has more fake followers than the prime minister or indeed any of the politicians in their league of shame.
Channel 4’s Cathy Newman Takes “Break From Twitter” After Mosque Tweets
Broadcaster Cathy Newman hit the headlines after she tweeted on Sunday to say that “ushered out of” the South London Islamic Centre in Streatham.
She had was taking part in Visit My Mosque day and said afterwards that she believed it must have been a men-only mosque, but was not made aware of this at the time. CCTV footage shows Newman leaving on her own after speaking to someone inside the mosque.
Today she announced her decision to break from Twitter as a result of the controversy.
@cathynewman1/4 I have written to South London Islamic Centre and offered my sincere apologies for tweets sent in haste after I visited there in error.
@cathynewman 2/4 I accept my tweets were inappropriate and regret the use of the word “ushered”.
@cathynewman 3/4 My language was poorly chosen and has caused a great deal of offence. I deeply regret that this happened.
@cathynewman 4/4 I shall now be taking a break from Twitter.
Shoe Shopping with Theresa May? Monkey Tennis, Anyone?
Social media has been awash with incredulity at some of the items auctioned at this week’s Tory party’s Black and White gala, a major fundraiser for the election campaign.
Diners paid up to £15,000 per table for a place at the secretive event attended by David Cameron and senior conservatives. With some of the country’s richest hedge fund managers in attendance lots included the opportunity to go “shoe shopping with Theresa May”. It’s not clear whether the £17,500 bid includes the price of the shoes or whether that will be extra.
Other bids were for a “unique bound collection” of George Osborne’s Budget speeches, signed by the chancellor,
a “roast chicken dinner” at the home of Chief Whip Michael Gove and a JCB digger.
On twitter user @paulsinha summed it up with the following:
“Shoe shopping with Theresa May” sounds less like an auction lot and more like a rejected TV pitch from Alan Partridge.
Monkey Tennis anyone?
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